The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production will reach 2 million tonnes (2.5 billion litres) in 2025, representing a 100% increase from 2024 levels. However, this significant milestone still represents just 0.7% of total airline fuel consumption, highlighting the substantial journey ahead for complete aviation decarbonisation and the massive scale required for meaningful environmental impact.
SAF costs approximately five times more than conventional jet fuel due to complex production processes and limited availability of sustainable raw materials. The ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation mandates minimum 2% SAF supply in Europe starting 2025, progressively increasing to 70% by 2050, with sub-mandates for synthetic e-fuels beginning at 0.7% in 2030. Airlines face additional US$4.4 billion in global fuel costs, with European carriers potentially spending an extra US$1.7 billion for regulatory compliance, raising concerns about cost pass-through to passengers.
Despite implementation challenges and elevated costs, industry leaders maintain optimism about SAF’s long-term potential for aviation transformation. SAF could contribute approximately 65% of emission reductions needed for aviation’s ambitious 2050 net-zero target, requiring massive production increases primarily in the 2030s when policy support becomes global and SAF achieves cost parity with fossil kerosene. Current production predominantly utilises the HEFA method using cooking oils and animal fats, but diversification into Alcohol-to-Jet and Fischer-Tropsch processes using biological and agricultural wastes could significantly boost volumes.
To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, IATA estimates between 3,000 to 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be required globally, demanding annual investment of US$128 billion over thirty years. Co-processing existing refineries with renewable feedstocks could save US$347 billion in capital expenditure by 2050.
Australia’s private aviation sector increasingly embraces SAF adoption for charter flights operations. Industry leaders advocate for government support through production incentives rather than punitive mandates that raise operational costs. Book-and-claim systems allow Australian charter operators to access SAF credits globally whilst local infrastructure develops, supporting environmental commitments without operational disruption.
